PocketMatrix

I've also learned that Brig still has sand in his vagina.

I do not think voting in the US presidential election is economically rational. There is generally only two cases where my vote makes any difference at all:
1.) my vote breaks a tie
2.) my vote creates a tie (and, depending on how your state breaks ties, this might not be relevant either.)
*.) depending on how your state divides its electoral votes, there might be a few more such scenarios where your vote makes a difference.

Anyone want to calculate the probability of this happening? Call this P1.

And even if it does happen (ie, your vote causes 'your guy' to get a few electoral votes), what is the probability of this actually changing the result of the election? Call this P2.

(note: if you're not voting GOP or Democrat, P2 is effectively zero; conveniently enough, so is P1)

Then, estimate the value (to yourself) of 'your guy' winning the election. Call this V.

Expected reward of voting = P1 * P2 * V

I haven't even tried to crunch the numbers, but I'm guessing there isn't enough dollars in the world to make voting worth your time. I believe voter turnout in the US is in the neighborhood of 30-40%; I'll consider voting when this gets in the vicinity of .03%.

The only real reason to follow politics at all is to piss off fundies.

As an aside, isn't it pretty damn funny when environmentalists drive (pollute), to vote (waste paper), and think they're making a positive difference?

What happens if everyone takes that view then? The turnout would fall below 1% and democracy would be in crisis.
It'm pretty sure it could be quite disastrous to you economically if the system would fail and a dictatorship or something similar would rise in its place...

No, as voter turnout falls, the expected value of voting rises. Eventually, you find some sort of equilibrium. The current equilibrium suggests that 30-40% of people think voting is worth the effort. My simple calculation shows that the logical value of voting is not the whole picture; people seem to enjoy voting for some non-rational reason. I suspect the missing factor here is mostly the illusion of democracy.

"If you don't vote, you can't complain about politics"
-- Paraphrasing several idiots

People don't quite seem to understand the realities of our 'democracy', a supposed for-the-people government. The average person seems to think that their vote actually makes some sort of difference. That is the illusion of democracy.

Your vote is mathematically guarenteed to mean practically nothing. Combined with the actual voting patterns, and the societal machinery which generates them, it is likely to mean a whole lot less. That is the reality of democracy.

The reality is that our society, and every other society that will ever exist, is run by the elite. The bottom line is that to the people at the top, the voting mass is a force. A force that can be controlled via carefully calculated exposure, largely through the media (which you,or your buddies, own) you can essentially define the nature of the masses.

If you really want to "make a difference" through American politics, manipulate the common person. American politics is a tug-of-war for the hearts and minds of stupid people. For every 'free-thinker' or rational voter, you're going to have 100 idiots persuaded by Bill O'Reilly's diatribes -- and another 100 idiots persuaded by Michael Moore's.

So, back to this illusion of democracy: that it is somehow more noble than other forms. Well, I'm not so sure about that; and I would recommend that everyone truly challenge that assertion. I'm not so sure it's so different as most people seem to think. Gotta go to class.

Beautifully said, Andy.